Detroit Arsenal

FORECAST DISCUSSION: We expect breeze conditions today, Friday, as a frontal boundary approaches from the northwest and high pressure departs to our east. The gusty southwest wind flow between these systems, along with dry conditions, will make an environment more prone to fire development. The National Weather Service has either Red Flag Warnings or Fire Weather Watches in place today across the northern half of the lower peninsula to highlight this risk. The cold front passes through the state Friday, then stalls across northern Indiana and Ohio this weekend. A small chance for precipitation exists as the boundary passes Friday, but a better chance for rain comes in the forecast for later Saturday into Sunday as a disturbance travels along the boundary just south of the state. High temperatures on Friday will be above normal, generally in the 70s, but readings decrease behind the cold front, with temperatures during the weekend falling from the 50s north to the 60s south. As for air quality, warmer temperatures are in place Friday with a southwest flow, but being so late in the ozone season, we expect readings to remain in the Good range through the forecast period. Similar to this past Sunday, the cold front passing through the state on Friday looks to bring in some smoke from fires far to the north and west of the region. This will likely cause increases in hourly fine particulate concentrations, but it does not look like higher readings would last for a long time. While hourly concentration may reach into the upper Moderate range, we do not anticipate daily averages of fine particulate to reach higher than the low to middle Moderate range. After the frontal passage, fine particulate may continue in the Moderate range across the south, closer to the stalled boundary, with Good concentrations expected across the rest of the state. The late Saturday into Sunday system should help keep fine particulate from developing, and readings are expected to average mostly Good. We will keep an eye on conditions during the weekend, and if conditions change from what is currently expected, this forecast will be updated to reflect the change. EXTENDED FORECAST: Extended forecast models show cooler temperatures with chances for precipitation continuing into early next week. Air quality in the long term should not be any higher than low-Moderate.